18 Fév

La gouvernance des risques et l'éthique

Summary :

How can we manage risks in Eurasia as a preventive measure, for the next fifty years? And how can we help the new phase of self-organization of the global economy to fall into place? Many authors have discussed the Kondratieff cycles. CHISTILIN and JOURDON began to work on the concept of monetary long cycles.For the next fifty years, the long monetary cycle can be better managed if it forms an inverted representation in time and order of importance of risks in the process of emergence. Earlier, societies had been ordered by classes, in a sense consciousness over determined reality. In today's societies that are increasingly ordered by relative exposures to risks, which specifically alters the appearance of class positions and relations, the consciousness of risk and risk distribution, risk avoidance and risk handling it is necessary to thouroughly analyse the individual risks, the links between them as well as opportunities that arise. For this purpose we have to

  • try to understand the nature and timing of turning points around self-structuring phenomena or structuring realities

  • design a matrix of conversion of phenomena related to the exploitation of energy, into phenomena related to the management, control and dissemination of information to improve society and the economy and democratic politics

  • take account of the toughest risk in the overall development, namely the risk of major war between 2026 and 2050, predicted by MODELSKI/GOLDSTEIN

  • finally apply our assumptions to the long phase of monetary cycle (according to our assumptions vis-à-vis the euro): Is it the first phase where the key currency established legal and financial reserves vis-à-vis environment? Or is it the phase where it should become an international reserve currency of highest rank, thus insuring effectively the system far beyond the borders originally assigned to the euro? Or is it the final phase, where debt is bending the system performance, where the key currency must find successors, but where financial stocks that have given birth to it, were related to social and symbolic values that everyone is impregnated, so that the transition can be accomplished in softness?

  • This includes the ability to manage irreversible risks in practice if not in theory, more and better in fifty years than nowaydays.

We propose a model describing the dual reality: a monetized – based on a hard currency and extended social rights – is suggesting a path to understanding the group risks in an ethical view and vice versa. In doing so it allows development, i.e. the possibility of structuring by imitation, for less monetized areas. The intermediate objectives can be in particular:

  • Democracy (which is also a final goal)

  • Monitoring of the development.

Furthermore, one aspect of the model is specifically related to communication as its implementation depends on being integrated in a system of participatory democracy. The ethical dimension will help every consumer, every producer, every citizen, to define, build or self-regulate its biographical model. By doing so citizens will undoubtedly be able to train, to defend or protect their rights, find their benchmarks in society and/or the economy or democratic politics. Finally, after the first preparatory phase, including the "definition of reservations”, we can return to emphasise the importance of changes to our collective advantage, defining a “portfolio of risks” that we can collectively negotiate, share, exchange. This is a matter of communal, national, regional and global relevance. Such scientific program cannot be achieved in a short period. As it is inspired by an ethical approach, it will accept a regular re-evaluation by asking questions as the following: 1) effects of growth, 2) effects on development, 3) effects on our understanding of the evolution of world Socium. If we want to summarise, we can show with the help a table that the ethical path allows us to develop relationships. These relationships between agents will allow them to foster the positive developments between the three spheres of the economy.




Symbolic sphere,

(dis-)connected from reality

Symbolic sphere,

Its values will be achieved by products or insurance

Monetary, financial and sphere of taxation,

geared to effect the real economy.

Monetary, financial and sphere of taxation,

reaching the symbolic sphere, but needed to protect the sovereign dimension of the symbolic sphere and to fight against uncontrollable debt.

Real sphere

Real sphere,

radically changing as the world can be united by globalisation, provided the method is cully applied